document management services - Ontario economic outlook 2011-2012 ; Manufacturers’ sales in Ontario increased in July following five straight monthly declines, almost reaching the post-recession high set in January of this year. A sharp slowdown in GDP growth in the U.S. was the main cause of weaker shipments in the second quarter. For the second half of 2011, U.S. GDP growth is forecast to be modest, at around 1.7 per cent annualized.
Sales totalled $21.3 billion in July in Ontario, up $958 million (4.7 per cent) from June and $1.19 billion (5.9 per cent) higher than a year earlier. (All figures are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise noted.) July’s gain was broadly based across industries, with transportation equipment (mainly new motor vehicles and parts), petroleum/coal products and primary metals leading the way. The only major classes of goods to decrease were food and chemical products, with those shipments down less than 1 per cent from June.
In the first seven months of 2011, manufacturers’ sales totalled $145.3 billion unadjusted, up $5.8 billion (4.1 per cent) from the same period last year. Year-to-date, year-over-year growth has been led by primary metal, machinery, petroleum/coal and fabricated metal products. Transportation equipment shipments are down a slight $195 million (0.5 per cent) on the same basis.
Looking ahead, Ontario’s manufacturing industries are forecast to post relatively small GDP growth rates through to 2013. Total manufacturing GDP growth in 2002 prices (i.e. net of price inflation) is forecast at 3.9 per cent in 2011 and 5.5 per cent in 2012, down from 8.0 per cent in 2010. Ontario’s export-oriented manufacturers will struggle over the next two years with the currency around par and below-normal demand growth in the U.S.
Vehicle sales decline
New motor vehicle sales in Ontario declined in July following a sizeable increase in June. Despite July’s slower sales, the trend remains slowly upward. New automobile sales totalled 49,342 units in July, down 4,438 (8.3 per cent) from June. The average sale price was $33,276, up 0.4 per cent from June. (Allfi gures are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise noted.)
Despite recent volatility, new motor vehicle sales are up compared with last year. In the first seven months of 2011 sales totalled 361,073 units, unadjusted, up 11,953 (3.4 per cent) from the same period last year.
Year-to-date, year-over-year growth was led by trucks, up 9,328 units (4.9 per cent), while passenger car sales increased by 2,625 units (1.7 per cent). Last year, new motor vehicle sales rose 8.1 per cent year over year in Ontario. We forecast unit sales will increase by less than 5 per cent in 2011 and 7 per cent in 2012, as real consumer spending on durable goods rises by just over 4 per cent per year and real business investment in machinery/equipment increases by just over 6 per cent per year.
Ontario employment
Employment in Ontario totalled 6.74 million persons in August, virtually unchanged from July, according to the results of Statistics Canada’s latest Labour Force Survey (LFS). Ontario’s unemployment rate was also unchanged at 7.5 per cent of the labour force. All numbers are seasonally-adjusted unless otherwise noted.
Employment increased in August in health care, accommodation/food and education services. These gains were offset by job declines in construction, transportation/warehousing and public administration.
Part-time employment inched down in August while full-time jobs inched up and total hours worked was virtually unchanged from July.
In the first eight months of 2011, total employment has averaged 6.73 million persons, not seasonally adjusted, up 2.0 per cent from the same period last year.
The unemployment rate averaged 8.1 per cent year-to-date, down from 9.1 per cent during the same period last year.
We forecast employment in Ontario will grow by 2 per cent this year which will outpace labour force growth and bring the province’s unemployment rate down to an average of 7.7 per cent. Total hours worked will rise faster than job growth as gains in full-time employment exceed gains in part-time employment.
Regions
In metropolitan Toronto, employment dipped by 16,300 persons (0.3 per cent) in August, the labour force declined by 25,100 persons (0.2 per cent) and the unemployment rate inched down to 7.9 per cent.
Job growth over the latest three months has been led by metro Toronto, northwest Ontario and the Muskoka-Kawarthas region, partly offset by job declines in the Hamilton-Niagara, Ottawa and London regions.
Toronto
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are positive. Over the latest three months, average total employment increased by an estimated 20,600 persons (0.7 per cent) from the prior three months, while the average unemployment rate fell from 8.6 per cent to 7.9 per cent of the labour force.
Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are negative. Over the latest three months, average employment decreased by an estimated 9,000 persons (1.3 per cent) from the previous three months, while the average unemployment rate increased from 6.9 per cent to 7.7 per cent of the labour force.
Ottawa The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are mixed. Over the latest three months, average employment inched down by an estimated 2,700 persons (0.4 per cent) from the preceding three months, while the average unemployment rate declined from 6.1 per cent to 5.7 per cent of the labour force.
The labour force declined by more than employment.
Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are steady. Over the latest three months, average employment was virtually unchanged from the prior three months, while the average unemployment rate declined from 7.1 per cent to 6.8 per cent of the labour force.
Windsor-Sarnia
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are positive. Over the latest three months, average employment inched up by an estimated 1,200 persons (0.4 per cent) from the prior three months, while the average unemployment rate declined from 9.1 per cent to 7.8 per cent of the labour force.
London
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are negative. Over the latest three months, average employment decreased by an estimated 2,100 persons (0.6 per cent) from the prior three months, while the average unemployment rate increased from 8.1 per cent to 9.0 per cent of the labour force.
Northeast
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are positive. Over the latest three months, average employment inched up by an estimated 300 persons (0.1 per cent) from the prior three months, while the average unemployment rate decreased from 8.3 per cent to 8.0 per cent of the labour force.
Kingston-Pembroke
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are negative. Over the latest three months, average employment inched down by an estimated 200 persons (0.1 per cent) from the preceding three months. Meanwhile, the average unemployment rate increased from 7.3 per cent to 8.0 per cent of the labour force.
Muskoka-Kawarthas
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are mixed. Over the latest three months, average employment increased by an estimated 3,300 persons (1.9 per cent) from the previous three months, while the average unemployment rate increased from 8.5 per cent to 9.4 per cent of the labour force. The labour force increased by more than employment.
Stratford-Bruce Peninsula
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are positive. Over the latest three months, average employment increased by an estimated 900 persons (0.6 per cent) over the preceding three months. Meanwhile, the average unemployment rate decreased from 5.3 per cent to 5.0 per cent of the labour force.
Northwest
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators are positive. Over the latest three months, average employment increased by an estimated 4,600 persons (4.8 per cent) over the preceding three months. Meanwhile, the average unemployment rate decreased from 7.6 per cent to 6.6 per cent of the labour force. http://www.troymedia.com/2011/09/17/ontario-economic-snapshot-for-sept-17-2011/
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