document management services - Canadian economic growth forecast 2012 - 2013 : Canada's economic outlook is positive despite the impact of softer second quarter growth both at home and in the U.S. But the adverse effect of Euro-zone financial trouble on our economy is worrysome.
These factors led to a reduction of 0.8 percentage points from the forecast of 2.4 per cent GDP growth issued in June, but Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC is still optimistic that the economy will continue to grow at a rate of 2.5 per cent.
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), Canada’s second-largest lender, reduced its forecast for the nation’s economic growth this year and next to reflect a U.S. economy that had a deeper recession than previously reported, according to Craig Alexander, the bank’s chief economist.
TD cut its growth forecast to 2.2 percent this year, from 2.8 percent. It reduced the forecast for next year to 1.9 percent, from 2.5 percent, and raised the 2013 outlook to 2.6 percent, from 2.1 percent.
Toronto-Dominion lowered its U.S. forecast for this year and next to below 2 percent after the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its numbers, showing that the recession was 25 percent deeper and was a third longer than forecast, and the economy stalled in the first half of the year source bloomberg.com
UBS Securities Canada Inc. has bumped up its 2011 forecast for Canadian economic growth, and trimmed its outlook for 2012.
In a research note published Friday, UBS said it is raising its call for gross domestic product growth in Canada this year to 2.7% from 2.3%, while at the same time trimming its 2012 forecast from 2.7% to 2.6%. The change reflects strong results in the fourth quarter of 2010, powered by robust domestic demand, “soaring exports”, and lower inventories.
it has also pushed out its forecast for the Bank of Canada to start hiking rates. It now expects the BoC to remain on hold until the third quarter, and for rates to only reach 1.5% by the end of the year (down from 1.75% previously). source www.investmentexecutive.com
Bank of Canada Upgrades Expectation of Canadian Economic Growth and Inflation
The Bank also raised its profile for Canadian inflation. The Bank conceded that higher food and energy prices will likely push total CPI inflation higher by the second quarter to 2.7%, which is already partially mitigated by a higher Canadian dollar. However, this is likely to be only temporary, as the Bank expects total CPI inflation to return to 2.0% by the second quarter of 2012.
Underlying inflationary pressures are slightly higher than their January projection, but still remain well contained and are in-line with the Bank's comfort level. Core inflation is now expected to reach 2.0% by the middle of 2012, up from the end of 2012. The output gap closes two quarters earlier than the Bank projected in January, now by the middle of 2012. source www.actionforex.com
Alberta’s GDP Growth to be the Second Highest in 2012
RBC expects Alberta’s GDP to grow by 3.8% in 2012, following Saskatchewan’s growth of 4.3%. After Statistics Canada revised its preliminary real GDP estimates for 2010 because initial estimates “applied incorrect weights in compiling real GDP for industry and economy-wide aggregates," RBC reconsidered its predictions.
They expect the national GDP will increase in 2011 and 2012 by 3.2 and 3.1%, respectively. Saskatchewan will change the most in both years (4.9% and 4.3%), followed by Newfoundland & Labrador in 2011 and by Alberta in 2012.
Alberta’s employment will grow the most in the same year and, as usual, its inflation will be among the lowest in the country (2.0%). Housing starts are estimated to be the third highest, after Quebec and Ontario. Source calgaryrealestate.ca
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